Texas Republicans received an encouraging late-campaign sign Thursday as an early-vote model showed the GOP holding an advantage.
Election Data Guy’s October 29 model counted 6,103,792 early and mail ballots while estimating Republicans ahead by 697,704 votes.
The model projected Republicans between 51% and 57%, compared with Democrats between 40% and 46% statewide.
It estimated turnout near 54%, reflecting heavy participation across the Lone Star State.
Early Vote Model Shows GOP Advantage
Those numbers are estimates, not official party counts, because Texas voters do not register by party.
Still, the Republican outlook strengthened as GOP primary voters began to flood to the early polls after a slower start.
The Associated Press reported more than 6.3 million Texans voted early by Friday, roughly 50% above the comparable 2022 pace.
Texas entered the election with a record 19,041,684 registered voters, giving both parties big populations to mobilize.
Record Early Voting Participation in Texas
Texas has now banked 6,103,792 early votes, with Republicans holding a 697,705 modelled firewall.
The modelled split sits around 55% R / 44% D — a touch softer for Republicans than their 2024 share (56.0%), and slightly firmer for Democrats than 2022 (43.2%).
About 568k votes were added since yesterday’s update, and the Republican firewall grew by roughly 63k.
Texas: party shares are modelled (no party registration) — official vote counts by party aren’t known until election day.
— E_DataGuy (@E_DataGuy) October 29, 2026
Senate Race Features Paxton vs. Talarico
Republicans are fighting to preserve a streak Democrats have failed to break for nearly four decades.
State Attorney General Ken Paxton, backed by President Donald Trump, is facing Democratic state Representative James Talarico for a U.S. Senate seat.
Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff, emerging with support from Trump-aligned conservatives.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since 1988, underscoring GOP statewide strength.
Campaign Spending Reaches Record Levels
Talarico has raised extraordinary money, but outside Republican groups answered with a larger financial wave supporting Paxton.
Talarico’s campaign raised $64 million during the third quarter, while Paxton raised $18 million over that same period. The disparity would normally alarm Republicans, but other conservative groups have poured resources into protecting the Texas Senate seat.
Republican-aligned organizations have spent more than $100 million defending Paxton, making Texas one of America’s costliest battlegrounds.
That outside support changes the equation and ensures Paxton will not face Talarico’s advertising advantage alone.
TEXAS 🗳️
Texas has now banked 6,103,792 early votes, with Republicans holding a 697,705 modelled firewall.
The modelled split sits around 55% R / 44% D — a touch softer for Republicans than their 2024 share (56.0%), and slightly firmer for Democrats than 2022 (43.2%).
About… pic.twitter.com/5e9TFxNnYm
— E_DataGuy (@E_DataGuy) October 29, 2026
Trump’s Political Machine Provides Financial Firepower
Trump’s political network has become the most powerful financial weapon available to Republicans during the closing stretch.
His flagship super PAC, MAGA Inc., spent nearly $277 million since September supporting Republican candidates across battlegrounds.
The operation still held more than $164 million on October 14, leaving ammunition for spending.
Trump said his broader political operation would commit more than $400 million to helping Republicans before Election Day.
He said approximately $300 million already funded advertising, voter contact, rallies, tele-rallies, turnout operations, and election monitoring.
National Republican Financial Advantage
That spending matters in Texas, where MAGA Inc. has directed millions against Talarico and Democratic allies.
The president’s financial operation gives Republican candidates presidential-level resources even though Trump is not on the ballot.
Nationally, Republican-aligned groups entered October with roughly $1 billion available, compared with $579 million across comparable Democratic organizations.
That advantage gives Republicans flexibility to defend difficult seats while attacking Democratic vulnerabilities elsewhere.
The Republican National Committee entered the final stretch with significant reserves and no committee debt reported federally.
FEC filings show the RNC held about $76.2 million through October 14 after spending over $303 million.
House Republicans Build Strong Financial Foundation
House Republicans built another financial machine through the National Republican Congressional Committee and Speaker Mike Johnson.
The NRCC raised approximately $250 million through September, narrowly surpassing the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s $249 million.
House Republicans entered October with about $61 million, compared with roughly $55.7 million for their Democratic counterpart.
Johnson has raised more than $220 million for House Republicans since becoming speaker, strengthening candidates across battlegrounds.
Republicans benefit from new coordinated-spending flexibility after the Supreme Court eliminated previous limits on party coordination.
That ruling lets party committees deploy resources more efficiently, potentially stretching every late-campaign contribution further.
Path Forward for Republicans in Texas
For Paxton, Texas Republican history, Trump’s endorsement, and financial reinforcement provide a powerful closing argument.
The early-vote model cannot predict individual ballots, but its Republican firewall estimate offers encouraging evidence about turnout thus far.
Republicans will still need strong Election Day participation, however.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
